Updated June 7, 2015 4:49 p.m. ET
ISTANBUL—Turkey’s Islamist-rooted government lost its majority in national elections after 13 years in power, raising the prospect of a coalition government and dealing a crushing blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s push to consolidate power.
With almost all of the ballots counted, the governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, was on course to win less than 41% of the vote, according to results published by state-run Anadolu news agency. That falls 18 seats short of the 276 needed to form a single-party government in Ankara’s 550-member parliament.
The count also showed a historic victory for the People’s Democratic Party, or HDP, which was on track to secure 13% of the vote after campaigning on a pluralistic platform to woo minorities, liberals, left-wing and antigovernment voters. This marks the first time the party, rooted in Kurdish nationalism, has crossed the 10% electoral threshold to enter parliament.
Turkey’s political landscape is poised to shift significantly after the tally is finalized, breaking the three-term AKP government’s stronghold on legislative and executive powers while emboldening the pro-Kurdish HDP as it bolsters its legitimacy.
Meanwhile, Mr. Erdogan’s long-held dream of shifting executive powers from parliament to the presidency with a new constitution will also be dented as the AKP that he led for three terms as prime minister loses its governing majority. That could pose the threat of a power struggle between the president and the parliamentary government, destabilizing Turkey just as its slowing $800 billion economy faces headwinds at home and from abroad.
“Erdogan is unlikely to alter his overall stance, governing style and policy agenda in the aftermath of this electoral defeat,” said Wolfango Piccoli, managing director at New York-based political risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence. “On the contrary, the risk is that he may double down, feeling under pressure.”
The result would likely prompt the first coalition or a minority government since the AKP came to power. That could rattle markets, irked by political instability and memories of the decade before the AKP, when multiparty governments’ tenures were short-lived and the country faced chronic economic crises.
“Have no worries, this nation’s decision is the best decision,” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in brief remarks after the provisional tally in the central Anatolian city of Konya. “We will not bend under any condition…we will all live great days, together.”
The AKP’s electoral setback stands to provide a glimmer of hope to Turkey’s long-sidelined opposition after two years marked by crackdowns against dissent, bureaucratic purges and sporadic protests.
“Those who saw themselves as Turkey’s sole owners have lost,” said Selahattin Demirtas, the HDP’s Kurdish co-chair who engineered the party’s rise in the polls and emerged as a new, strong opposition voice. “At this moment, discussions of a dictatorship in Turkey have come to an end; thankfully, Turkey is back from the brink.”
As a sign of growing frustration with the increasingly polarizing politics of the ruling AKP, the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, also increased its votes, winning more than 16% in this election compared with 13% in the 2011 ballot. Meanwhile, the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, saw its support drop to about 25% from 26% in the previous national poll, as the HDP appealed to some of its liberal and left-wing voters.
“I voted for the HDP for the first time. Given Turkey’s dynamics today, I believe this is what’s needed,” said Nilufer, a 50-year-old doctor in Istanbul who declined to provide her last name. “My expectation now is to have a more livable country, under more humane conditions, where people understand and tolerate each other.”
The risk of renewed escalation of violence in Turkey’s southeast also receded with the HDP’s entry to parliament, as Mr. Demirtas had threatened civil disobedience in the event that his party failed to clear the democratic world’s highest electoral threshold. That would have threatened to derail fragile peace talks to end a three-decade Kurdish insurgency, where some 40,000 people have been killed.
Turkey’s sea change will also mark a new phase in Ankara’s relations with long-term allies: the U.S., the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, which have all voiced concern about violations of basic rights and freedoms, as well as the erosion of the rule of law.
A total 56.6 million Turkish citizens, including 2.9 million expatriates in 54 countries around the world, were eligible to cast votes. The participation rate abroad was more than 35%, while more than 86% of domestic voters took to the polls, in line with historic averages.
Write to Emre Peker at emre.peker@wsj.com
ISTANBUL—Turkey’s Islamist-rooted government lost its majority in national elections after 13 years in power, raising the prospect of a coalition government and dealing a crushing blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s push to consolidate power.
With almost all of the ballots counted, the governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, was on course to win less than 41% of the vote, according to results published by state-run Anadolu news agency. That falls 18 seats short of the 276 needed to form a single-party government in Ankara’s 550-member parliament.
The count also showed a historic victory for the People’s Democratic Party, or HDP, which was on track to secure 13% of the vote after campaigning on a pluralistic platform to woo minorities, liberals, left-wing and antigovernment voters. This marks the first time the party, rooted in Kurdish nationalism, has crossed the 10% electoral threshold to enter parliament.
Turkey’s political landscape is poised to shift significantly after the tally is finalized, breaking the three-term AKP government’s stronghold on legislative and executive powers while emboldening the pro-Kurdish HDP as it bolsters its legitimacy.
Meanwhile, Mr. Erdogan’s long-held dream of shifting executive powers from parliament to the presidency with a new constitution will also be dented as the AKP that he led for three terms as prime minister loses its governing majority. That could pose the threat of a power struggle between the president and the parliamentary government, destabilizing Turkey just as its slowing $800 billion economy faces headwinds at home and from abroad.
“Erdogan is unlikely to alter his overall stance, governing style and policy agenda in the aftermath of this electoral defeat,” said Wolfango Piccoli, managing director at New York-based political risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence. “On the contrary, the risk is that he may double down, feeling under pressure.”
The result would likely prompt the first coalition or a minority government since the AKP came to power. That could rattle markets, irked by political instability and memories of the decade before the AKP, when multiparty governments’ tenures were short-lived and the country faced chronic economic crises.
“Have no worries, this nation’s decision is the best decision,” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in brief remarks after the provisional tally in the central Anatolian city of Konya. “We will not bend under any condition…we will all live great days, together.”
The AKP’s electoral setback stands to provide a glimmer of hope to Turkey’s long-sidelined opposition after two years marked by crackdowns against dissent, bureaucratic purges and sporadic protests.
“Those who saw themselves as Turkey’s sole owners have lost,” said Selahattin Demirtas, the HDP’s Kurdish co-chair who engineered the party’s rise in the polls and emerged as a new, strong opposition voice. “At this moment, discussions of a dictatorship in Turkey have come to an end; thankfully, Turkey is back from the brink.”
As a sign of growing frustration with the increasingly polarizing politics of the ruling AKP, the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, also increased its votes, winning more than 16% in this election compared with 13% in the 2011 ballot. Meanwhile, the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, saw its support drop to about 25% from 26% in the previous national poll, as the HDP appealed to some of its liberal and left-wing voters.
“I voted for the HDP for the first time. Given Turkey’s dynamics today, I believe this is what’s needed,” said Nilufer, a 50-year-old doctor in Istanbul who declined to provide her last name. “My expectation now is to have a more livable country, under more humane conditions, where people understand and tolerate each other.”
The risk of renewed escalation of violence in Turkey’s southeast also receded with the HDP’s entry to parliament, as Mr. Demirtas had threatened civil disobedience in the event that his party failed to clear the democratic world’s highest electoral threshold. That would have threatened to derail fragile peace talks to end a three-decade Kurdish insurgency, where some 40,000 people have been killed.
Turkey’s sea change will also mark a new phase in Ankara’s relations with long-term allies: the U.S., the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, which have all voiced concern about violations of basic rights and freedoms, as well as the erosion of the rule of law.
A total 56.6 million Turkish citizens, including 2.9 million expatriates in 54 countries around the world, were eligible to cast votes. The participation rate abroad was more than 35%, while more than 86% of domestic voters took to the polls, in line with historic averages.
Write to Emre Peker at emre.peker@wsj.com
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