Smart Health Shop Forum Blog: First Take: Extending Iran talks includes dangers, advantages

Monday, November 24, 2014

First Take: Extending Iran talks includes dangers, advantages – USA TODAY

Police and journalists stand in entrance of Palais Coburg the place closed-door nuclear talks with Iran happen in Vienna, Austria, Monday, Nov. 24, 2014.(Photograph: Ronald Zak, AP)

A 2d extension of talks to curb Iran’s nuclear application displays that Iran and world powers stay a ways aside on the important thing issues, yet both sides benefit from letting the negotiations continue.

The Iranians, who received partial relief from Western sanctions a year ago for curbing some nuclear activity, benefit from an additional $700 million a month in released frozen assets they receive while the talks continue, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told reporters this morning.

A delay also gives Iran hope of further weakening of the sanctions that have punished its economy. German exports to Iran have increased in 2014, and Iran’s economy is in a modest recovery. And Iran is working on large trade deals with Russia and China.

The West gains from a continuation of the talks because it is hoping Iran will eventually agree to nuclear curbs and cooperate in the war against the Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria.

At the same time, both sides run risks from allowing negotiations to drag on. Iran might not get a deal that will lift the onerous sanctions that have limited its growth in the region. The West risks allowing Iran to stall for time as it secretly grows a nuclear weapons program.

If Iran were to join the nuclear weapons club, it could face military action from the United States or Israel.

In Vienna, where negotiators were seeking a deal by Monday’s deadline, the two sides decided on a March 1 deadline for a framework agreement and a July 1 deadline for a final agreement, according to the Associated Press. The talks, which have been proceeding under an interim agreement for a year, have already been extended once, in June.

Sanctions were imposed to force Iran to stop producing nuclear fuel through a process that can power reactors or nuclear weapons, and to answer questions about suspected weapons development that Iran denies.

World powers – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany – have been deadlocked with Iran on the size of Iran’s program for producing nuclear fuel, and the timeline for removing the sanctions. Also at issue is whether Iran will fully explain its past nuclear activities as demanded by the United Nations Security Council.

Secretary of State John Kerry said over the weekend that large gaps remain between the two sides.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA operative and Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who believes Iran has a nuclear weapons program and seeks to keep it, says continuing the talks averts a stark choice for President Obama, who has pledged to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

“For the administration the choice is between surrender (to Iran) and military action,” Gerecht said.

Others say the choice is not that stark.

“I don’t think either side see escalation (of tensions) as in their interest,” says David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, which focuses on proliferation issues.

The U.S. Congress, where members from both parties have been pushing for increased sanctions to pressure Iran, is likely to follow through on those threats when Republicans take control of the Senate in January. The White House says that would shatter international unity on sanctions and cause the talks to collapse.

Yet even Iran’s harshest critic, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prefers to extend the talks rather than accept a bad deal. “The right deal that is needed is to dismantle Iran’s capacity to make atomic bombs and only then dismantle the sanctions,” Netanyahu said. “Since that’s not in the offing, this result is better, a lot better.”

Secretary of State John Kerry, right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrive for a group photo during the talks in Vienna on Nov. 24.(Photo: Roland Schlager, European Pressphoto Agency)